Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 15.052358 18.307280 21.913882 26.181470 31.067290 36.460287 42.836414
2025-11-09 10.308168 14.493526 19.637301 26.312344 34.626605 44.520659 57.054274
2025-11-16 7.568896 12.002825 17.925701 26.174613 37.103400 50.815444 69.019928
2025-11-23 5.597041 9.939410 16.199513 25.476166 38.426372 55.396844 78.790188
2025-11-30 4.597061 8.998847 15.763875 26.305467 41.639305 62.415297 91.875496
2025-12-07 3.576684 7.765743 14.645890 25.922337 42.999057 66.888829 101.679115
2025-12-14 2.914481 6.969698 14.044773 26.169146 45.177679 72.498558 113.177383
2025-12-21 2.168722 5.818151 12.647197 24.951136 44.989445 74.641697 119.843934
2025-12-28 1.835519 5.397014 12.434298 25.602093 47.658629 80.995465 132.680362
2026-01-04 1.522781 4.931829 12.056150 25.902681 49.747599 86.536437 144.507685
2026-01-11 1.283062 4.565888 11.802063 26.370485 52.100375 92.539243 157.191895
2026-01-18 1.109457 4.313560 11.730515 27.142923 54.977743 99.437974 171.416987
2026-01-25 0.861910 3.795876 11.058475 26.801707 56.079273 103.834620 182.403975
2026-02-01 0.689190 3.428183 10.652252 26.933255 58.022717 109.689706 195.911986
2026-02-08 0.536973 3.052172 10.147402 26.792900 59.441753 114.723527 208.287455
2026-02-15 0.393855 2.623614 9.416964 26.081642 59.737616 117.882271 217.781478
2026-02-22 0.334220 2.491407 9.418970 26.926138 62.967685 126.050701 235.486954
2026-03-01 0.249503 2.189017 8.892861 26.536001 63.803695 130.172016 246.783930
2026-03-08 0.197933 2.007032 8.664759 26.787327 65.881203 136.483577 261.810369
2026-03-15 0.130165 1.660120 7.848684 25.546935 64.898030 137.394230 267.952892
2026-03-22 0.106965 1.569858 7.821993 26.209884 67.790049 145.239249 285.824588
2026-03-29 0.083490 1.448515 7.661318 26.515986 69.955068 151.848551 301.789291
2026-04-05 0.066295 1.354444 7.572355 26.992343 72.495157 159.212013 319.210461